As around 160 million American voters decide who would be their next leader, there is a nation of 119 million people intently watching some 7,050 nautical miles away.
Philippines, as the whole world knows, has significant interest in the outcome of the U.S. presidential election especially during these times when China is aggressively imposing its so-called nine-dash line that covets the West Philippine Sea (WPS), the body of water internationally acclaimed as an exclusive economic zone of the Filipinos.
With a huge and mighty navy, China has lately been bullying the Filipinos in the WPS, repeatedly firing water cannons towards Philippine coast guard or fishing vessels and sometimes ramming smaller Filipino sea crafts with monstrous Chinese sea assets. These Chinese incursions have caused injuries to Filipino bodies and, yes, even souls.
China, with its sheer size advantage, could easily rout the Philippines in the WPS. The only deterrent has been the United States which has an active Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) with the Philippines.
It is for Manila to invoke the MDT when the situation calls for it; and it is for Washington to respond when it thinks fit. That makes the outcome of the US presidential election crucial for the Philippines.
In a way, the fate of the WPS over the next four years could be in the hands of Vice President Kamala Harris or former president Donald Trump.
Filipino observers believe that a Harris presidency offers a measure of security guarantee for the Philippines in its tiff against China.
First and foremost, Harris is expected to connect on the gains of the Biden administration in relation to the WPS imbroglio. This includes the $500 million additional military aid for Manila committed just weeks ago by Washington. Earlier on, the Biden administration opened a training center for the Philippine Coast Guard, expanded US military operations to four new bases, and in an unprecedented move, deployed a US Coast Guard Fast Response Cutter to the island of Leyte following a skirmish between Philippine and Chinese military forces. Policy experts think that Biden strengthened the US-Philippine alliance more than any leader in modern American history — and Harris is generally seen to be headed towards the same direction.
It is similarly noteworthy that the U.S. vice president hosted the first US-Japan-Philippines trilateral summit recently that made China concerned if not angered. In several public statements, Harris has actually voiced support for Philippine sovereignty while firmly rejecting China maritime claims.
Donald Trump, on the other hand, has manifested anti-China posturing and this should offer hope for Manila in its WPS struggles in the event the former U.S. president finds his way back to the Oval Office.
According to the Philippine ambassador the United States, bilateral relations between the two countries would remain strong under a second Trump administration.
“We are confident that there will be no new major changes,” Ambassador Manuel Romualdez said in May, noting that Biden “only continued” in 2020 Trump’s foreign policy towards the Indo-Pacific region and the South China Sea.
It is of course on record that the Trump administration openly rejected China’s nine-dash line and it promised to defend the Philippines from any “armed attack” in the South China Sea based upon the two country’s mutual defense commitments.
So will it be Donald Trump for the Philippines? Or will it be Kamala Harris?
Judging from the public pronouncements of the two leading presidential contenders of the United States, there is good reason to believe that the Philippines has America solidly at the back in the next four years as it navigates the rough western seas where China looms larger than ever.