A pair of voter surveys released this week offer some encouraging news for the Harris camp just two weeks out from the November 5 election. Both polls show strong support for the Democratic candidate among voters of color in key swing states.
With Harris and Trump locked in a dead heat, marginalized communities in battleground states could make the difference in a race likely to be won along the margins.
“There is a buzz in our community,” said Yadira Sanchez, co-founder and executive director of Poder Latinx, a civic and social justice organization focused on building political power for Latinos nationwide.
Poder Latinx joined APIAVote and the National Coalition on Black Civic Participation for a multi-state survey of young voters of color gauging attitudes on a range of issues in the lead-up to election day.
Among the findings, the survey shows overwhelming support for Harris among younger voters of color compared to her Republican rival, with 61 percent of Latino, 83 percent of Black and 63 percent of AAPI youth voters showing a preference for Harris over Trump. Voters preferring Trump were also more likely to say they are willing to change their mind.
The poll of 800 voters was conducted between October 11-15 in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. It has a margin of error of ±3.9 percentage points.
According to Sanchez, young Latinos – and particularly younger Latinas – have been galvanized by Harris’ candidacy. Many also look to Mexico’s recent election of its first female president, Claudia Sheinbaum as inspiration for a Harris’ presidency.
“I believe Harris’ support, especially among young Latinas, is being undercounted,” noted Sanchez, who said her organization saw a surge in voter registration after Harris’ announced her candidacy in July.
Sanchez spoke Tuesday during a Zoom briefing announcing the survey results. She was joined by APIAVote Executive Director Christine Chen, Sean Floyd, programs manager with the National Coalition on Black Civic Participation, and Guy Molyneux with polling firm Hart Research, which conducted the survey.
Chen, whose organization conducts the bi-annual Asian American Voter Survey, echoed Sanchez, noting that a lot of the organizing within the AAPI community was being done by younger women. “Harris enjoys a large advantage among young women of color,” said Chen.
Earlier polling has shown a notable gender gap among younger voters, with 67 percent of females saying they support Harris compared to 48 percent of males saying the same.
Other findings from Tuesday’s results show the economy and reproductive rights are top priorities for younger voters of color, with issues including democracy and climate change scoring lower in terms of political importance.
Among respondents, 69 percent said abortion should always be legal, with 64 percent saying states are making access to abortion too difficult, compared to just 29 percent who said abortion should be largely illegal and that states are making access too easy.
On the question of immigration, a sizable majority (60 percent) favored some combination of increased border security combined with a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants now in the country. Just one-third expressed support for a border wall.
More than half of respondents (54 percent) said they have experienced racial discrimination, with 64 percent saying it would be very important to elect a president who would work to fight racism. That number was especially high among Black respondents (72 percent.)
“Support for the Democratic ticket is very high,” said Floyd, who spoke from Toledo, Ohio, part of a multi-state bus tour organized by the National Coalition on Black Civic Participation.
According to Floyd, there is an overriding sense that the Democratic ticket will be “most effective in putting policies in place that will support the growth and understanding of the Black community, and particularly Black youth.”
He added, “Black voters are engaged and excited and are going out there to get the word out.”
The poll comes just one day following the release of another survey of 2,000 likely Latino voters in battleground states conducted by the organization VotoLatino. Similar to Tuesday’s poll, the VotoLatino findings show strong support for Harris (64 percent) compared to 31 percent for Trump among respondents.
Harris’ support was notably strong in Arizona, where the harsh anti-immigrant tactics of former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio sparked a surge of Latino political engagement.
“He’s what got a lot of these people in the game,” María Teresa Kumar, CEO of Voto Latino, told The Hill. “And so the fact that was able to swing and not just tear into Trump, but also diminish the stronghold of independent voters, that really struck me.”
The website 538, which averages national polling data, shows Trump with 1.9 percent lead over Harris in Arizona. The two remain deadlocked in most of the swing states, while the Vice President maintains a 1.7 percent lead nationally.
The numbers suggest even modest shifts in voter turnout in battleground states could make the difference come November 5.
“Youth are not only mobilized but also critical in battleground states,” said Chen. “Their votes have the potential to swing critical races.”
